Ford F-150: Record Sales, Lingering Inventory, and What It Means for Buyers
The Ford F-150 continues to dominate the truck market, but there's an interesting twist in the tale. Let's dive into the latest sales figures, inventory situation, and what it means for potential buyers in 2025.
Record-Breaking Sales
Ford has stunned industry observers by selling a whopping 830,000 F-150 trucks in 2024, just shy of their all-time best year. This marks a significant jump from the previous years' average of around 700,000 units. It's a remarkable comeback, especially considering the challenges faced by other automakers.
Competitive Landscape
Chevrolet Silverado: Approximately 500,000 units sold
RAM: Dropped to 375,000 units
Ford's dominance in the truck market is clear, outselling its closest competitor by a substantial margin.
The Inventory Puzzle
Despite record-breaking sales, Ford still has about 67,000 2024 model year F-150s in inventory. When combined with 2025 models, the total inventory sits at around 82,000 units. Here's a breakdown:
Gas models: 71,000 units
Hybrid models: 11,000 units
Trim-Level Inventory
XLT: 42,695 units (up from 25,000)
STX: Holding steady at 20,000 units
Tremor: Increased from 600 to 2,000 units
Buying Strategy for 2025
Given the current inventory situation, buyers have a good opportunity to negotiate, especially on the XLT trim. Here's what you should aim for:
Target Discount: 11-13% off MSRP (before rebates and incentives)
Example: For an F-150 XLT with an MSRP of $59,845, aim for a selling price of $53,262 (11% discount)
Current Incentives
Option 1: 5.9% promotional financing for 84 months
Option 2: $2,000 rebate
Additional: $1,000 trade-in assistance bonus for 1995 or newer vehicles
Tip: The $2,000 rebate is likely the better choice for most buyers.
Financing vs. Leasing
Financing Scenario
Price after rebate: $51,262
Financing terms: 4.9% for 60 months
Monthly payment: $981
Total 5-year cost: $62,118
Leasing Option
36-month lease, 12,000 miles per year
61% residual value
3.26% APR
$1,000 in rebates
Estimated monthly payment: $558 (excluding tax)
Total lease cost: $22,996 (including estimated fees and 6.25% sales tax)
Resale Value Considerations
CarEdge.com projects a 49% depreciation over 5 years. However, buying a 2024 model in 2025 might lead to slightly higher depreciation. A comparable 2020 model with under 60,000 miles is currently selling for $28,000 to $30,000.
What's the Best Move?
Given the current market conditions and lease terms, leasing might be the more attractive option for many buyers. The monthly payments are reasonable, and it passes the 1% rule (monthly payment less than 1% of MSRP).
Conclusion
The Ford F-150 continues to be America's favorite truck, and for good reason. With the current inventory situation, buyers have a unique opportunity to get a great deal on a 2024 model. Whether you choose to buy or lease, make sure to negotiate aggressively and take advantage of available incentives.
Remember, the truck market is always evolving, so keep an eye on the latest data and trends before making your decision. Happy truck hunting!
